Why Microsoft is already winning the mobile game

Microsoft is the dark knight of the mobile game. It’s hard to see Microsoft’s mobile growth through Android blizzard. Microsoft has quietly either emerged or is emerging as a winner in the mobile game.

Microsoft has a presence in the mobile software business but like all things Microsoft it ignored it for a while. Microsoft needed a Netscape Navigator to realize that Internet indeed is a big thing and Internet Explorer should be their key focus. What’s Microsoft’s Netscape Navigator for its mobile strategy? There are couple – iPhone (iOS) and Android. Once iPhone changed the smartphone scene and Android brought it to the bourgeoisies, Microsoft decided to plunge in – one more time.

Microsoft has jumped in big and is making a splash. Microsoft launched is brand new mobile operating system – Windows Phone 7. With its re-entry, Microsoft had several problems to deal with. There’s is software, market place, manufacturers and the competition. Since the launch of WP7, Microsoft hasn’t done a spectacular job but it isn’t half bad. It has sold 12.4 million Windows powered phones in 2010 and shipped 3.6 million phones in the first quarter of 2011. Microsoft’s market place, as per its recent claims, has surpassed that of Research in Motion in the number of apps available. A major minor achievement.

Microsoft’s general growth in mobile operating system has been flat since 2007.

Note : All figures are in hundred thousand. For 2010, MS has shipped 12.378 million phones.

But it is expected to pick up in 2011 with 26 million WP7 phones on route to the distribution channel. Here’s Gartner’s predictions through to 2015 :

Note : All figures are in hundred thousand.

Microsoft will continue its growth into 2015 to become second major mobile operating system ahead of iOS and behind Android. It might ship 216 million Windows phones in 2015. Isn’t that stellar?

How exactly will Microsoft grow in mobile space?

Nokia, Android, Skype and Mango will make it all happen for Microsoft

Nokia : Symbian on gallows

Ever since Nokia has announced its partnership with Microsoft, it is nothing but bad news for Symbian. World’s premier smartphone operating system is on gallows. 2016 is the year in which Nokia will stop supporting Symbian. What will happen to all the phones that were supposed to have Symbian on it? Most of them will run Windows. That’s where Microsoft gets its 216 million figure from. Nokia has been shipping significant Symbian powered phones. Here’s the growth chart since from 2007 to 2010.

Note : All figures are in hundred thousand.

And here’s the ‘growth’ chart from 2010 to 2015 :

Note : All figures are in hundred thousand.

Yes. That’s a straight dip The dip is for the Symbian powered phones and not Nokia phones. We have every reason to believe that Nokia which ships 25-30 million smartphones every quarter will continue to do so. Nokia will be like HTC, but only better.

Nokia is Microsoft’s new best friend. Imagine all the Nokia phones running Windows.

Android : The patent hell

Apple has sued HTC on 20 patent infringements. Quite a few of them refer to the software they use on their phones. In this case Android. That’s a chilling news for Android community. HTC has disagreed with Apple’s actions and provided a history lesson of its innovations till date. If Apple can sue HTC, they can sue other Android phone makers like Samsung, Motorola and LG – if applicable. A potential patent hell for using a free software.

At around the same time, HTC got cozy with Microsoft for some intellectual property like the ClearText on the LCD screens and agreed to pay Microsoft a royalty. That’s is rumored to be $5 per HTC phone sold with Android on it. For every Android phone sold, HTC and Microsoft are making money. In fact, since the launch of WP7, Microsoft has made more money in Android phones than its WP7 phones.

If there are ripple affects of the patents being filed by Apple and Microsoft, there will obviously be a decline in the number of Android phones, and a rise of Windows phones. If the manufacturers pony up and make truce with Microsoft or Apple, Android will be a money spinner for both Microsoft and Apple. A true win-win.

Skype : Whole new video calling

Kinect is good at video capture and capturing gestures. Skype is really good at conferencing. Microsoft has both Kinect and Skype. All Microsoft has to do is integrate them both and voila we will have a brand new video calling tool like no other. Video is the next big thing on mobile.

Mango : 500 features and counting….

Microsoft’s upcoming upgrade to WP7 is Mango. It is a significant upgrade which focuses on communication, internet and a whole lot more. Mango is focused on putting the user at the center of communication. All the messaging, texting and social networking apps are integrated in one big tile, thus avoiding the hopping between screens or apps. You don’t have to get out of Linkedin to check the latest tweets. Music, search and whole bunch of enhancements make Mango the most awaited software release in the recent smartphone history.

Where does it put WP7 as an operating system. The word is, on par or a little ahead of iOS and Android. And where does it put Microsoft? Not that it already isn’t but back on the cash pile. 

Of the four things mentioned above, Microsoft is still better if one or two things won’t work out. The weakest on the list is Skype and Android’s patent hell. Symbian extinction and Mango’s success are almost guaranteed.

Note : All the data above is from Gartner’s archives.